Voters in left leaning Washington state and Colorado have approved measures designed to ban transgender athletes from participating in school-sanctioned sports, in results that cut across the usual political map. The two states are among the most Democratic leaning in the country, and the approval of the measures there shows that the question of transgender participation in school sports does not divide voters along the lines that most political arguments do. The measures passed in the same election that delivered sweeping Democratic victories in Congress, which makes their success a notable exception to the night pattern.
Why it matters
The measures turn on a question that has divided schools, sports bodies and courts for several years: who should be eligible to compete in school sports, and on what basis. Supporters of the bans argue that participation should be determined by sex assigned at birth, and that fairness in competition requires it. Opponents argue that the bans exclude a small number of young people from an activity that is central to school life, and that the number of athletes affected is tiny compared with the scale of the political argument. The voters in Washington and Colorado have now sided with the first argument, at least for school sanctioned sports.
The results matter because of where they happened. A ban approved in a conservative state can be read as a reflection of that state politics, and it often is. A ban approved in Washington and Colorado, states that voted heavily Democratic on the same ballot, cannot be read that way, and it suggests that public opinion on this question is more complicated than the partisan debate allows. It also suggests that the issue will not be settled by a single election, or by a single party victory, because the voters who delivered the Democratic wave also delivered these bans.
What happens next
The practical effect of the measures will be decided in the months ahead, as school districts, sports associations and state agencies work out how to apply them. Questions of enforcement, of privacy, and of legal challenge are all live, and the measures are likely to face court cases that test whether they comply with state and federal anti discrimination law. The history of similar measures in other states suggests a long legal process, with injunctions, appeals and conflicting rulings before any final answer emerges.
What happens next is a test of whether the election result changes the national conversation. The measures passed in two states that are otherwise aligned with the Democratic Party, and the party will have to decide whether to treat them as a local exception or as a signal that its own voters are more divided on the question than its platform suggests. For the young athletes at the centre of the debate, the answer matters more than the politics. They will learn in the coming months whether they can play the sports they have trained for, and under what rules.
